# πŸͺ΅ TLC Flash Brief β€” Iran Ceasefire Impact on Lumber Business **Date:** April 8, 2026 **Prepared by:** Rob Lobster 🦞 --- ## The Macro Shift This Morning The US-Iran 2-week ceasefire (Strait of Hormuz reopening) creates a cascade of effects that hit Tuckerton Lumber directly. --- ## Net Impact on TLC Operations ### POSITIVE Effects (Short-Term) | Factor | Impact | |--------|--------| | Diesel/fuel prices drop | Forklift operations, boom truck deliveries, transportation costs all go DOWN. Estimate: 10-15% reduction in fuel spend if oil sustains near $93/barrel | | Contractor confidence | Geopolitical stability β†’ contractors more likely to commit to large projects. Housing starts sentiment improves. | | Supply chain stabilization | Import costs for hardware/tools ease slightly as shipping fuel costs decline | | Lumber demand signal | If housing activity picks up, lumber demand could push prices back up from the $577 level | ### RISK/NEUTRAL Effects | Factor | Impact | |--------|--------| | Canadian lumber tariff (45%) | **UNCHANGED** β€” this is domestic policy, not tied to Iran war. Still in effect. Still the biggest cost headache. | | Lumber futures near $577 | Pulled back from $614 Jan high. With housing optimism improving, could push back toward $600+ | | 2-week window | "Conditional" ceasefire. If it fails, oil spikes back and fuel costs reverse. Don't re-price delivery contracts yet. | --- ## Fuel Cost Savings Estimate (If Oil Holds Near $93) **Before:** Brent crude ~$110-120 during Hormuz closure **After ceasefire:** Brent dropped to ~$93 (still up 65% from Jan 2026 start) Approximate TLC fuel exposure: - Boom truck (2 trucks, avg 50 miles/day each, 8 MPG) β†’ ~12.5 gal/day - Forklifts (diesel, Tuckerton + Surf City): est. 20 gal/day combined - Delivery van + personal vehicles: ~10 gal/day - **Total: ~42 gal/day operational diesel** At $0.40/gallon savings ($3.50 β†’ $3.10 estimate): **~$16/day = $480/month = $5,760/year** Not enormous, but real money. Worth watching. --- ## The Bigger Picture for TLC: Spring 2026 Outlook **Lumber demand indicators:** - NJ building permits: Ocean County up 47% YoY (from prior Rob research) - LBI: 121 active builds - South Jersey construction cost inflation: 4.1% - Spring selling season: NOW (March–August is the margin window) **With Hormuz reopening:** - Consumer confidence could improve β†’ residential spending uptick - Contractor pipeline may accelerate projects that were on hold - **Paul/Devaney should push Neal and Denise to call contractors this week while the energy is up** --- ## Action Items for Joe 1. **No action needed on fuel contracts** β€” monitor for 2 weeks before adjusting 2. **Tell Paul/Joe Young:** Contractor pipeline calls this week. Ceasefire = confidence boost. Window is now. 3. **Lumber futures at $577:** If they push back toward $600 on housing optimism, the seasonal pricing strategy (pre-built by Rob) is ready to activate immediately 4. **Do NOT cut prices** β€” this is the margin window. Hold the line on the seasonal pricing strategy. --- ## Bottom Line The Iran ceasefire is net positive for TLC in the short term: - Lower fuel costs - Better contractor sentiment - Spring seasonal demand aligns with improved macro backdrop The 45% Canadian lumber tariff remains the single biggest operational headwind. Nothing has changed there. The contractor talking points Rob built on April 7 are still the right framing β€” use them. --- *File: /projects/tlc-ceasefire-lumber-flash-april-2026.md* *Rob Lobster 🦞 β€” April 8, 2026*