# NJ Construction & Building Permit Trend Analysis
## TLC Market Intelligence Report — March 2026
*Prepared by Rob Lobster 🦞 | March 30, 2026*

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NJ construction is **booming** — spending up 13% statewide in 2025 vs. 2024, while national spending declined 1%. But cracks are forming: construction jobs dropped 10,000+ in NJ year-to-date, oil is above $90/barrel driving costs, and geopolitical uncertainty clouds 2026. For TLC, this means: **demand is strong now but protect margins aggressively because cost inflation is returning.**

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## BUILDING PERMIT DATA — TLC's HOME COUNTIES

### Ocean County (Primary TLC Market)

| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
|--------|------|------|--------|
| **Total Housing Units Authorized** | 1,928 | 2,836 | **+47%** 🔥 |
| Single/Two-Family | 1,594 | 1,740 | +9% |
| Multi-Family | 334 | 1,096 | +228% |

**Key Ocean County Municipalities (2024 permits):**
- **Manchester Twp:** 983 units (898 multi-family) — massive development
- **Lakewood Twp:** 432 units (315 single-family) — ongoing residential boom
- **Plumsted Twp:** 332 units (331 single-family) — new subdivision activity
- **Berkeley Twp:** 136 units
- **Ocean Twp:** 127 units
- **Dover Twp (Toms River):** 125 units
- **Long Beach Twp (LBI):** 81 units (100% single-family) — teardown/rebuild cycle
- **Stafford Twp (Manahawkin):** 81 units (100% single-family)
- **Lacey Twp:** 79 units
- **Barnegat Twp:** 144 units (104 single-family, 40 multi)
- **Ship Bottom:** 15 units (100% single-family) — active teardown/rebuild
- **Beach Haven:** 25 units
- **Little Egg Harbor:** 26 units

### Burlington County (Secondary TLC Market — Crosswicks/Chesterfield Area)

| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
|--------|------|------|--------|
| **Total Housing Units Authorized** | 1,257 | 1,782 | **+42%** |
| Single/Two-Family | 617 | 484 | -22% |
| Multi-Family | 640 | 1,298 | +103% |

**Key Burlington County Municipalities (2024 permits):**
- **Moorestown Twp:** 652 units (644 multi-family) — major apartment development
- **Burlington Twp:** 394 units (371 multi-family)
- **Mount Laurel Twp:** 369 units (210 single-family, 159 multi)
- **Edgewater Park:** 103 units (100% single-family)
- **Hainesport:** 76 units
- **Chesterfield Twp:** 0 permits — **No new construction in Joe's backyard**

### New Jersey Statewide

| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
|--------|------|------|--------|
| **Total Housing Units** | 21,717 | 27,176 | **+25%** |
| Single/Two-Family | 9,576 | 10,345 | +8% |
| Multi-Family | 12,141 | 16,831 | +39% |

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## WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TLC

### 🔥 Bullish Signals (Opportunities)

1. **Ocean County +47% in permits** — this is TLC's bread and butter. More construction = more lumber, hardware, paint demand. The single-family segment (teardowns, rebuilds, renovations) is especially margin-rich because these buyers are less price-sensitive than big developers.

2. **LBI teardown/rebuild cycle continues** — 81 permits in Long Beach Twp + 15 in Ship Bottom + 25 in Beach Haven = 121 permits on the island alone. At ~$400K-$800K per build in materials, this represents **$48M-$97M** in construction materials demand from LBI alone.

3. **Stafford/Manahawkin growing** — 81 new single-family permits. These are TLC's local year-round customers, not seasonal. This is base-building.

4. **Barnegat exploding** — 144 permits, up from prior years. Affordable Ocean County housing = contractor demand for TLC.

5. **NJ construction spending forecast: +5% in 2026** (ACCNJ/Otteau report). Pipeline of $124.3 billion in planned future spending statewide (up 29% from 2023 pipeline).

### ⚠️ Warning Signals (Protect Margins)

1. **Construction cost inflation returning** — South Jersey at **4.1% YoY** increase. Not pandemic-level (18%) but significant. TLC needs to ensure pricing captures these increases — don't absorb them.

2. **NJ lost 10,000+ construction jobs YTD** — labor shortage persists despite spending growth. This slows projects but also means contractors are stretched thin (less price shopping, more loyalty to reliable suppliers like TLC).

3. **Oil above $90/barrel** — transportation/delivery costs rising. Monitor TLC's delivery fuel costs.

4. **Multi-family dominance** — Most growth is multi-family (developers), not single-family (TLC's sweet spot). Multi-family developers buy in bulk at lower margins from large distributors, not local lumberyards. **This is NOT TLC's growth.** The single-family segment grew only 8% statewide.

5. **Burlington County single-family DOWN 22%** — Chesterfield had zero permits. The Crosswicks side of the business may face headwinds.

### 💡 Actionable Recommendations

1. **Double down on LBI contractor relationships** — The island is rebuilding aggressively. Neal and Denise should be all over the top LBI builders. 121 permits = at minimum 50-60 active builders who need a local supplier.

2. **Price increases justified** — 4.1% South Jersey construction cost inflation gives TLC cover to raise prices 3-5% on seasonal items (March-August window is NOW). Frame it as cost pass-through, which it is.

3. **Track Manchester/Lakewood multi-family developers** — While not TLC's traditional customer, 983 + 432 units represents potential institutional accounts worth pursuing, especially for paint and finishing materials.

4. **Surf City positioning** — With Ship Bottom at 15 permits and Long Beach Twp at 81, the island builds are concentrated around Surf City. This store's location is strategic. Make sure inventory is optimized for the spring build season.

5. **Chesterfield pivot** — Zero permits in Chesterfield. The firehouse project aside, this market is dormant. Crosswicks/Chesterfield is more renovation/repair than new construction. Adjust expectations accordingly.

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## COMPARISON: TLC'S MARKET vs. SANDY ERA

From Rob's previous 25-year LBI market analysis, the post-Hurricane Sandy period (2013-2017) was TLC's most significant revenue era. Current LBI permit levels (121 in 2024) suggest we're in a **sustained replacement/upgrade cycle** — not Sandy-scale but consistently strong. The key difference:

- **Sandy era:** Forced rebuilds, insurance-funded, time-pressured → volume play
- **2024-2026:** Voluntary teardowns, luxury upgrades, cash-funded → margin play

**TLC should be earning HIGHER margins now than during Sandy**, because these customers are choosing to build (less price pressure) vs. forced to rebuild (insurance adjuster controls).

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## DATA SOURCES

- NJ Dept. of Community Affairs — Building Permits Yearly Summary (2023, 2024 data)
- ACCNJ/Otteau Valuation Group MarketCAST Q4 2025 Report
- ROI-NJ, March 19, 2026 — "NJ construction industry spending rose in 2025"
- CNBC/EBC Financial Group — Market correlation data (March 2026)

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*This report should be shared with Paul Devaney and Joe Young for operational planning.*
*Make good decisions. 🦞*