# April 30 Strike List — Pre-Execution Stock Deep Dives
*Generated: April 3, 2026 | Rob Lobster 🦞*
*27 days until execution*

---

## Market Snapshot (April 2-3, 2026)

- **S&P 500:** ~6,570 (Apr 2 close) — DOWN from Joe's exit at 6,591.90 on March 25
- **Joe's move is WORKING:** Exited at 6,591.90 → market at 6,570 = flat/slightly down. Meanwhile Joe's treasury position earning ~5% annualized risk-free.
- **Scorecard:** Joe is ahead by ~$21 in index points + 9 days of treasury yield (~$2,300 earned on $1.7M at 5%)

---

## Focus: 5 Highest-Conviction Positions for April 30

These are the stocks Joe should feel MOST confident buying on execution day. I'm doing targeted deep dives on 5 positions from different buckets.

---

### 1. VISA (V) — Core Forever Holding

**The Moat:** Visa doesn't take credit risk. They clip a percentage of every transaction that flows through their network. That's not a business — that's a toll booth on the global economy.

**Key Numbers:**
- Market cap: ~$670B
- Revenue growth: 10-12% annually (consistent for a decade)
- Net margins: ~55% (insanely high — software-like economics with payment network scale)
- Free cash flow yield: ~3.5%
- Dividend growth: 15-17% CAGR over 10 years

**Why It's a Forever Hold:**
- Digital payments replacing cash globally — secular tailwind for decades
- Network effects: every merchant that accepts Visa makes Visa more valuable to cardholders, and vice versa
- 200+ countries, 4B+ cards in circulation
- Cross-border transactions (highest margin) growing as global travel expands
- AI/ML fraud detection creates switching costs — merchants can't easily leave

**The Buffett Test:**
- Would I want to own this for 40 years? **Yes.** As long as humans buy things, Visa wins.
- Moat getting wider or narrower? **Wider.** Every new tap-to-pay terminal, every emerging market going digital, every crypto-to-fiat on-ramp flows through Visa.
- Management? Strong — disciplined capital allocation, steady buybacks

**Risk (Invert, Always Invert):**
- Regulation: DOJ antitrust suit (ongoing), potential caps on interchange fees
- Disruption: Real-time payment rails (FedNow, PIX in Brazil) could bypass card networks
- Competition from Apple Pay, PayPal — but these still ride ON Visa's rails

**Verdict:** Core position. Buy on April 30. This is a 40-year compounder.

---

### 2. FAIR ISAAC (FICO) — Core Forever Holding

**The Moat:** 90%+ of US mortgage decisions use a FICO score. That's not market share — that's a monopoly embedded in regulation.

**Key Numbers:**
- Market cap: ~$50B
- Revenue growth: 12-14% annually
- FICO Score segment margins: ~80% (the highest-margin business you'll find)
- Total addressable market expanding into insurance, rental, employment screening

**Why It's a Forever Hold:**
- Regulatory moat: FHFA mandates FICO scores for conforming mortgages
- 30+ year lock-in with credit bureaus (Experian, Equifax, TransUnion)
- Platform business (FICO Score) + software business (analytics) = double engine
- Price increases flow directly to bottom line — customers CANNOT switch
- International expansion barely started (huge US-centric business)

**The Buffett Test:**
- Would I want to own this for 40 years? **Yes.** Credit scoring becomes MORE important as fintech grows, not less.
- Moat getting wider or narrower? **Wider.** Every new credit product needs a FICO score.
- Founder-led? No, but management has been excellent on capital allocation.

**Risk:**
- VantageScore competition (backed by credit bureaus) — but has failed to gain regulatory traction for 17+ years
- CFPB regulatory changes could mandate alternative scoring
- Valuation is rich (~40-50x earnings) — need to watch entry price

**Verdict:** Buy on April 30 but watch the entry price. If it's above 50x earnings, consider a smaller initial position and average in.

---

### 3. ALIBABA (BABA) — Opportunistic Value

**The Moat:** Dominant e-commerce + cloud platform in China (900M+ annual active consumers). Trading at a massive discount to US peers.

**Key Numbers:**
- Market cap: ~$280-300B
- Revenue: ~$130B (larger than Amazon's e-commerce revenue was at the same stage)
- Free cash flow: ~$20B+ annually
- Price/FCF: ~14x (vs. Amazon at 40x+)
- $60B+ cash on balance sheet
- Aggressive buyback program ($25B+ authorized)

**Why It's an Opportunistic Value Play:**
- **Li Lu owns it** — Charlie Munger's chosen successor for Asian investing
- **Massive discount to intrinsic value** — geopolitical risk is priced in, but the business keeps growing
- Cloud (Alibaba Cloud) is #1 in China, growing 20%+ — this could be worth $100B+ standalone
- AI investments (Tongyi Qianwen) positioning for Chinese AI infrastructure
- Ant Group IPO restart could unlock $50-100B in value

**Risk (Invert, Always Invert):**
- **China political risk** — VIE structure means you own a contract, not equity. CCP could intervene.
- **Delisting risk** — though PCAOB audit inspections have reduced this
- **Competitive pressure** from PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo/Temu), JD.com, ByteDance
- **Currency risk** — RMB depreciation vs. USD

**Verdict:** Asymmetric bet at current valuations. Even if it just re-rates to 20x FCF, that's 40%+ upside. Li Lu buying it is a strong signal. Size appropriately (2-3% max) given geopolitical tail risk.

---

### 4. PROGRESSIVE (PGR) — Core Forever Holding

**The Moat:** Best-in-class underwriting + Snapshot telematics data = pricing advantage that compounds over time.

**Key Numbers:**
- Market cap: ~$155-165B
- Combined ratio consistently <95% (means they make money on underwriting, not just investment income)
- Premium growth: 15-20% annually (taking massive market share)
- Direct-to-consumer model = lower costs than agency-based competitors

**Why It's a Forever Hold:**
- **Data moat:** 30+ years of Snapshot telematics data. Every mile driven by a Progressive customer makes their pricing models better. Competitors can't replicate this overnight.
- **Buffett parallel:** Progressive to auto insurance is what GEICO was to Berkshire — a direct-to-consumer disruptor with cost advantages
- **Growing in commercial auto and homeowners** — expanding TAM
- **Culture of underwriting discipline** — they'd rather shrink than write bad business

**Risk:**
- Catastrophe losses (hurricanes, storms) — they write homeowners now
- Rate regulation in certain states could cap pricing power
- Customer acquisition costs rising as competitors copy digital models

**Verdict:** Strong buy at reasonable valuation. This is a 30-year compounder. Peter Lynch would love this — boring business, great economics, taking share every quarter.

---

### 5. MERCADOLIBRE (MELI) — 20-Year Innovation Holding

**The Moat:** The Amazon + PayPal of Latin America, operating in markets where e-commerce penetration is still <15%.

**Key Numbers:**
- Market cap: ~$110-120B
- Revenue growth: 35-40% annually
- Mercado Pago (fintech arm) processing $50B+ annually
- E-commerce GMV growing 30%+
- Operating in 18 Latin American countries

**Why It's a 20-Year Hold:**
- **Founder-led:** Marcos Galperin (CEO since founding in 1999) — compared to Buffett in philosophy
- **Massive runway:** Latin American e-commerce is where the US was in 2010. The growth is AHEAD, not behind.
- **Fintech tailwind:** 70% of Latin Americans are underbanked. Mercado Pago is becoming their financial system.
- **Logistics moat:** Building their own delivery network (Mercado Envíos) — this is the hard part that barriers to entry

**Risk:**
- **Currency devaluation** across Latin America (especially Argentina, Brazil)
- **Competition:** Amazon Latin America expanding, Shopee entering
- **Political instability** in key markets
- **Valuation:** Not cheap at 40-60x earnings — but growth rate justifies it for a 20-year hold

**Verdict:** Buy on April 30. Was trading near 52-week lows recently (~$1,977). Founder-led, massive TAM, early innings. This is a 20-year compounder if Galperin executes.

---

## Pre-Execution Checklist (27 Days Out)

- [ ] **Set limit orders, not market orders** — stagger entries over 2-3 weeks post April 30
- [ ] **Confirm account allocation** — which stocks go in IRA vs. taxable (tax-efficient placement)
- [ ] **Review Roth conversion impact** — any positions to buy specifically in Roth IRA for max tax-free growth?
- [ ] **Set price alerts** for all 29 positions — buy on weakness, not on green days
- [ ] **Track treasury yield earned** — document exactly how much the cash position earned from Mar 25 to Apr 30

---

## Rob's Assessment 🦞

Joe, 27 days out and your cash position is still winning. The market went nowhere while you earned risk-free yield. That's the beauty of patience.

These 5 stocks represent the strongest convictions across your three buckets:
- **V, FICO, PGR** = Core Forever (wide moats, decades of compounding ahead)
- **BABA** = Opportunistic Value (Li Lu bet, massive discount, geopolitical risk priced in)
- **MELI** = 20-Year Innovation (founder-led, Latin America's digital transformation)

Don't try to time the bottom on April 30. Stagger over 2-3 weeks. The goal isn't perfection — it's getting positioned in great businesses at reasonable prices.

*Make good decisions.* 🦞