# April 30, 2026 — Portfolio Execution Plan
## JFL&KL FUND — 31 Days to Go
*Prepared by Rob Lobster 🦞 | March 30, 2026*

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## MARKET CONTEXT — Why This Is Getting Interesting

**S&P 500 closed Friday Mar 27: 6,368.85** (down 1.67%)
- Joe's exit baseline on Mar 25: **6,591.90** → Market has dropped **3.4% since Joe went to treasuries**
- Dow entered correction territory (10% off peak)
- 5 consecutive losing weeks
- 16 of 25 S&P 500 industry groups in correction territory
- 4 industry groups in bear market territory
- Oil spiked above $90/barrel (geopolitical supply disruptions)

**⚡ Joe's move to 100% treasuries on March 25 has already saved ~$64,600 in paper losses on $1.9M**
*(3.4% × $1.9M = ~$64,600 that would have been lost had he stayed invested)*

This is exactly the Buffett/Munger playbook: cash is a weapon, not a drag. The market is coming to us.

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## CURRENT PORTFOLIO STATE

| Account | Value | Status |
|---------|-------|--------|
| Traditional IRA | ~$1,100,000 | Treasuries |
| Taxable Account | ~$400,000 | Treasuries |
| Remaining Positions | ~$174,908 | 14 stocks (7 to sell) |
| **Total Deployable** | **~$1,674,908** | Cash + sell proceeds |

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## THE 29-STOCK EXECUTION PLAN

### BUCKET 1: CORE FOREVER HOLDINGS (40-Year Compounders)
*Target: ~60% of portfolio = ~$1,005,000*

| # | Ticker | Company | Bucket % | $ Amount | Shares @ Current | Super Investor Backing | Current Price | 52wk High | % Off High |
|---|--------|---------|----------|----------|-------------------|----------------------|---------------|-----------|-----------|
| 1 | **MELI** | MercadoLibre | 8.0% | $134,000 | ~70 | Akre, Lou, Spier | $1,923 | $2,645 | -27% |
| 2 | **GOOGL** | Alphabet | 7.0% | $117,250 | ~377 | Buffett, Ackman, Li Lu, Rochon, Russo, Gayner | $311 | $349 | -11% |
| 3 | **AMZN** | Amazon | 7.0% | $117,250 | ~562 | Buffett, Ackman, Smith | $209 | $259 | -19% |
| 4 | **NVDA** | NVIDIA | 6.0% | $100,500 | ~521 | Smith, multiple | $193 | $212 | -9% |
| 5 | **V** | Visa | 5.0% | $83,750 | ~273 | Munger, Smith, Hohn, Rochon, O'Leary | $307 | $376 | -18% |
| 6 | **MA** | Mastercard | 5.0% | $83,750 | ~est 175 | Akre, Kantesaria, Russo, O'Leary | ~$480 | est | — |
| 7 | **MCO** | Moody's | 5.0% | $83,750 | ~185 | Akre, Kantesaria, Hohn, Spier | $453 | $547 | -17% |
| 8 | **SPGI** | S&P Global | 4.0% | $67,000 | ~160 | Multiple | $418 | $579 | -28% |
| 9 | **FICO** | Fair Isaac | 4.0% | $67,000 | ~55 | Kantesaria | $1,228 | $2,218 | -45% |
| 10 | **BN** | Brookfield Corp | 4.0% | $67,000 | ~1,489 | Pabrai, serial acquirer model | $45 | $50 | -9% |
| 11 | **CB** | Chubb | 3.0% | $50,250 | ~149 | Buffett | $337 | $337 | 0% |
| 12 | **COST** | Costco | 2.0% | $33,500 | ~34 | Multiple | $998 | $1,067 | -6% |
| **Subtotal** | | | **60%** | **$1,005,000** | | | | | |

### BUCKET 2: OPPORTUNISTIC VALUE (5-7 Year Asymmetric Bets)
*Target: ~30% of portfolio = ~$502,500*

| # | Ticker | Company | Bucket % | $ Amount | Shares @ Current | Thesis | Current Price | 52wk High | % Off High |
|---|--------|---------|----------|----------|-------------------|--------|---------------|-----------|-----------|
| 13 | **BABA** | Alibaba | 4.0% | $67,000 | ~437 | China consumer, Tepper/Burry | $153 | $193 | -21% |
| 14 | **PDD** | PDD Holdings | 3.0% | $50,250 | ~470 | China consumer, Li Lu/Lou | $107 | $139 | -23% |
| 15 | **PGR** | Progressive | 3.0% | $50,250 | ~est 175 | Joe's own deep DCF work | ~$287 | est | — |
| 16 | **META** | Meta | 3.0% | $50,250 | ~79 | Smith, Dorsey, Rochon | $639 | $796 | -20% |
| 17 | **SE** | Sea Limited | 2.5% | $41,875 | ~391 | Southeast Asia growth | $107 | $199 | -46% |
| 18 | **UBER** | Uber | 2.5% | $41,875 | ~587 | Mobility + delivery network | $71 | $102 | -30% |
| 19 | **CVNA** | Carvana | 2.0% | $33,500 | ~103 | Turnaround, digital auto retail | $325 | $487 | -33% |
| 20 | **RACE** | Ferrari | 2.0% | $33,500 | ~90 | Ultra-luxury, pricing power | $374 | $519 | -28% |
| 21 | **CSU** | Constellation Software | 2.0% | $33,500 | TBD | Post-Leonard crash opportunity | TBD | — | -55% |
| 22 | **QSR** | Restaurant Brands | 2.0% | $33,500 | ~487 | Franchise model, Ackman | $69 | $74 | -7% |
| 23 | **NFLX** | Netflix | 1.0% | $16,750 | ~215 | Content moat, global scale | $78 | $134 | -42% |
| 24 | **NU** | Nu Holdings | 1.0% | $16,750 | ~1,014 | LatAm fintech, Buffett position | $17 | $19 | -13% |
| 25 | **HHC** | Howard Hughes | 1.0% | $16,750 | ~213 | Ackman real estate play | $79 | $90 | -12% |
| 26 | **GE** | GE Aerospace | 1.0% | $16,750 | ~48 | Defense/aviation moat | $346 | $347 | 0% |
| **Subtotal** | | | **30%** | **$502,500** | | | | | |

### BUCKET 3: 20-YEAR INNOVATION HOLDINGS (0.6% Each)
*Target: ~4.2% of portfolio = ~$70,350*

| # | Ticker | Company | Bucket % | $ Amount | Thesis |
|---|--------|---------|----------|----------|--------|
| 27 | **ASML** | ASML Holding | 0.6% | $10,050 | Semiconductor lithography monopoly |
| 28 | TBD | Innovation Pick #2 | 0.6% | $10,050 | Joe to confirm |
| 29 | TBD | Innovation Pick #3 | 0.6% | $10,050 | Joe to confirm |
| **Subtotal** | | | **1.8%** | **$30,150** | |

### RESERVE CASH
| | | Bucket % | $ Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|----------|----------|---------|
| Cash | Dry powder | ~8.2% | ~$137,258 | Opportunistic deployment during continued correction |

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## 7 POSITIONS TO SELL (Before April 30)

From the existing 14 positions — Joe needs to confirm which 7 are sells. Based on the watchlist data, likely candidates NOT on the April 30 buy list. **Joe: please confirm the 7 sell tickers.**

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## EXECUTION STRATEGY

### Phase 1: Sell (April 28-29)
- Sell 7 existing positions via market orders (these are likely small)
- Total sell proceeds added to deployment pool

### Phase 2: Deploy (April 30 - May 15, staggered)
**⚠️ ROB'S RECOMMENDATION: Don't deploy all on April 30.**

The market is in correction mode — 5 straight losing weeks, Dow in correction. This could get worse before it gets better. **Buffett's edge is patience.**

**Proposed deployment schedule:**
- **April 30 (Day 1):** Deploy 40% (~$670K) into Core Forever positions — these you want regardless of short-term movement
- **May 5-9 (Week 2):** Deploy 30% (~$500K) into Opportunistic Value positions
- **May 12-15 (Week 3):** Deploy remaining 30% — reassess market conditions, may increase cash reserve

### Order Types by Position Size
- Positions >$80,000: **Limit orders** — set at or slightly below Friday's close
- Positions $30,000-$80,000: **Limit orders** — 1-2% below current price (patience premium)
- Positions <$30,000: **Market orders** — not worth limit order monitoring for small sizes
- **FICO, CSU, MELI** (wide spreads, lower liquidity): **Limit orders only, never market**

### Account Allocation (IRA vs Taxable)
**Tax optimization principle:** Put highest-growth (and highest-tax-burden-if-sold) in Roth IRA.

| Account | Best Holdings | Reason |
|---------|--------------|--------|
| **Roth IRA (converting)** | MELI, NVDA, AMZN, SE, CVNA | Highest growth = most tax-free gains |
| **Traditional IRA** | CB, QSR, BN, V, MA | Dividend payers, moderate growth |
| **Taxable** | GOOGL, META, BABA, PDD | Strategic tax-loss harvesting flexibility |

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## EARNINGS CALENDAR — WATCH LIST (April 2026)

These April 30 stocks report earnings near deployment date — **don't buy ahead of binary events at full size:**

| Ticker | Expected Report Date | Action |
|--------|---------------------|--------|
| GOOGL | Late April | Buy AFTER earnings if possible |
| META | Late April | Buy AFTER earnings if possible |
| AMZN | Late April / Early May | Likely safe for April 30 buy |
| MSFT | Late April | Not on list but affects sentiment |

**Rob's Note:** Q1 2026 earnings season kicks off mid-April. If any of our targets gap down on earnings, that's a gift — deploy more aggressively into the dip.

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## MONITORING CHECKLIST (Now Through April 30)

- [ ] **Q4 2025 13F filings** — already filed Feb 14. Pull latest changes from super investors
- [ ] **Joe to confirm:** 7 sell tickers from existing 14
- [ ] **Joe to confirm:** Innovation Bucket picks #2 and #3
- [ ] **Fidelity accounts** — all three (Roth, Traditional IRA, Taxable) fully funded and ready?
- [ ] **Robert MacArthur call** — Roth conversion 2026 tranche discussion before deployment
- [ ] **Track S&P 500 daily** — Joe's exit at 6,591.90 is the benchmark. Currently at 6,368.85 (-3.4%)
- [ ] **Watch oil prices** — $90+ Brent = inflationary signal, could push correction deeper
- [ ] **CSU (Constellation Software)** — verify Toronto exchange pricing / US OTC availability / USD conversion

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## THE SCOREBOARD

| Metric | Joe's Exit (Mar 25) | Current (Mar 27) | Change |
|--------|---------------------|-------------------|--------|
| S&P 500 | 6,591.90 | 6,368.85 | **-3.4%** |
| Dow Jones | 46,429.49 | ~41,700 (est correction) | **~-10%** |
| Joe's Portfolio | $1,900,000 | $1,900,000 | **$0 loss** |
| Estimated Savings | — | — | **~$64,600** |

*"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." — Warren Buffett*

The market is getting fearful. In 31 days, we deploy.

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*Make good decisions. 🦞*