# Surfbox Growth Tracker — Path to $1M
**Date:** March 26, 2026 | **Data Source:** SurfBox Monthly Statistics (through Feb 2026)

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## Revenue Summary

### LBI (Valet Box LLC — Ocean County, NJ)

| Period | Revenue | vs Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| **2025 Full Year** | **$512,310** | +23.3% vs 2024 ($415,461) |
| **2024 Full Year** | $415,461 | +33.9% vs 2023 ($310,393) |
| **2023 Full Year** | $310,393 | — |
| **2026 YTD (Feb)** | $70,353 | +59.1% vs 2025 YTD ($44,236) |

### OBX (Surfbox NNC LLC — Outer Banks, NC)

| Period | Revenue | vs Prior Year |
|---|---|---|
| **2025 Full Year** | **$196,047** | +14.0% vs 2024 ($171,925) |
| **2024 Full Year** | $171,925 | +223.3% vs 2023 ($53,175) |
| **2023 Full Year** | $53,175 | — |
| **2026 YTD (Feb)** | $10,240 | -36.5% vs 2025 YTD ($16,109) |

### Combined

| Period | Combined Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| **2025** | **$708,357** | +20.6% |
| **2024** | $587,386 | +61.6% |
| **2023** | $363,568 | — |
| **2026 YTD (Feb)** | $80,593 | +33.5% vs 2025 YTD ($60,345) |

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## Path to $1M Analysis

**2025 combined: $708K → Target: $1M → Gap: $292K (41.2% growth needed)**

### Scenario Modeling

| Scenario | LBI Growth | OBX Growth | LBI Rev | OBX Rev | Combined | Hit $1M? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Conservative** (same growth rates) | +23% | +14% | $630K | $223K | **$853K** | ❌ |
| **Moderate** (pricing + occupancy gains) | +30% | +25% | $666K | $245K | **$911K** | Close |
| **Aggressive** (social media + expansion) | +35% | +40% | $692K | $274K | **$966K** | Close |
| **$1M Target** | +38% | +44% | $707K | $282K | **$989K** | ≈Yes |

**Reality check:** To hit $1M in 2026, you need both locations growing at historically above-average rates. LBI would need to grow at **38%** (its best year was 33.9%) and OBX at **44%**.

**My honest assessment:** $850-950K is more realistic for 2026. $1M is a 2027 target unless you add capacity (more units) or significantly raise prices.

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## Monthly Trend Deep Dive — LBI

| Month | 2025 Income | 2024 Income | 2023 Income | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $44,236 | $39,136 | $25,722 | +13.0% |
| February | $36,275 | $32,573 | $26,305 | +11.4% |
| March | $50,586 | $31,102 | $28,996 | +62.7% |
| April | $49,044 | $41,193 | $27,030 | +19.1% |
| May | $42,302 | $34,162 | $27,878 | +23.8% |
| June | $33,906 | $27,879 | $26,277 | +21.6% |
| July | $36,667 | $30,426 | $19,229 | +20.5% |
| August | $34,668 | $27,302 | $22,415 | +27.0% |
| September | $43,535 | $34,066 | $22,175 | +27.8% |
| October | $47,618 | $47,518 | $31,295 | +0.2% |
| November | $44,963 | $33,321 | $25,974 | +34.9% |
| December | $49,838 | $36,782 | $27,096 | +35.5% |

**Key insight:** LBI's strongest growth months are **March (+63%), Nov-Dec (35%)**. Summer months grow at a steadier 20-27%. October barely grew (0.2%) — investigate.

### Net Unit Growth — LBI

| Period | New Rentals | Move Outs | Net | Implied Occupancy Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Total | 328 | 269 | **+59** | Growing |
| 2024 Total | 257 | 217 | **+40** | Growing |
| 2023 Total | 183 | 128 | **+55** | Growing |
| 2026 Jan-Feb | 32 | 13 | **+19** | Strong start |

LBI is consistently adding net units every year. The 2026 pace (19 net adds in 2 months) would project to ~114 net adds for the year — but that's skewed by seasonal rental patterns.

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## Monthly Trend Deep Dive — OBX

| Month | 2025 Income | 2024 Income | 2023 Income | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $16,109 | $9,258 | $1,661 | +74.0% |
| February | $11,319 | $7,974 | $969 | +42.0% |
| March | $17,251 | $17,116 | $1,493 | +0.8% |
| April | $25,250 | $9,401 | $2,413 | +168.6% |
| May | $15,481 | $22,221 | $6,269 | -30.3% |
| June | $14,270 | $13,089 | $4,761 | +9.0% |
| July | $22,168 | $17,230 | $7,524 | +28.7% |
| August | $21,133 | $15,495 | $6,316 | +36.4% |
| September | $20,191 | $12,893 | $9,668 | +56.6% |
| October | $17,685 | $18,379 | $5,598 | -3.8% |
| November | $11,527 | $16,289 | $6,512 | -29.2% |
| December | $10,782 | $12,578 | $6,511 | -14.3% |

**⚠️ OBX slowed down in H2 2025.** October, November, December all declined year-over-year. This needs investigation — are you losing units? Competitor pressure? Pricing?

### Net Unit Growth — OBX

| Period | New Rentals | Move Outs | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Total | 121 | 142 | **-21** ⚠️ |
| 2024 Total | 131 | 96 | **+35** |
| 2023 Total | 84 | 52 | **+32** |
| 2026 Jan-Feb | 0 | 4 | **-4** |

**🚨 OBX went NET NEGATIVE in 2025.** Lost 21 more units than gained. And 2026 has zero new rentals through February. This is the single biggest threat to the $1M target.

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## Strategic Recommendations

### 1. Fix OBX (Urgent)
- Zero new rentals in Jan-Feb 2026 is a crisis signal
- Check: Is the Google Ads spend allocated to OBX? What's the conversion rate?
- Check: Are units available? Or is this a capacity constraint?
- The NC office Surfbox bus is being disposed — ensure local presence isn't disappearing with it

### 2. LBI Pricing Opportunity
- Revenue growing faster than unit growth → pricing power exists
- Average monthly income per unit is rising — good sign
- March-August seasonal window: consider 5-10% price increase for new rentals

### 3. Social Media (April 30 Go-Live)
- One video per store per week is the plan
- Focus on **move-in testimonials** and **seasonal storage solutions** (summer gear, boat gear for LBI market)
- OBX content should target Outer Banks vacation rental owners (off-season storage)

### 4. Revenue Per Unit Optimization
- Upsell insurance/protection plans
- Offer "annual commitment" discount to reduce churn (lock in 12-month contracts)
- Referral program: existing customers get 1 month free for each referral

### 5. Realistic 2026 Targets
- **LBI target:** $630-665K (23-30% growth)
- **OBX target:** $210-240K (7-22% growth — depends on fixing the new rental pipeline)
- **Combined target:** $840-905K
- **$1M is 2027** unless OBX gets fixed AND units are added

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## Key Metrics to Track Monthly

| Metric | LBI | OBX |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly income | $55K/month target | $18K/month target |
| Net unit adds | Positive | **Must turn positive** |
| Google Ads cost per conversion | $13-33 (optimize) | Need data |
| Occupancy rate | Need data | Need data |

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*Analysis by Rob Lobster 🦞 | Source: SurfBox Monthly Statistics.xlsx*