# April 30, 2026 — Portfolio Execution Prep
## 35 Days to Go
**Date:** March 26, 2026

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## The Plan Recap

**Current state:** 14 positions ($175K) + $1.7M cash = ~$1.9M total
**Action:** Sell 7 positions, buy 19 new → 29-stock concentrated portfolio
**Three buckets:** Core Forever Holdings (40yr), Opportunistic Value (5-7yr), 20-Year Innovation Holdings (0.6% each)

Recent modification: Replaced BAC with equal allocations across **V, FICO, BABA, and PGR**.

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## Super Investor Overlap Analysis

From Joe's "Clone the Best" spreadsheet — here's where the super investors converge. These are the highest-conviction ideas across 25+ tracked funds:

### Most Widely Held (Cross-Referenced 13F Data, Jan 7 2026)

| Stock | # of Super Investors Holding | Key Holders |
|---|---|---|
| **BRK/BRK.B** | 9 | Buffett, Munger, Li Lu, Spier, Rochon, Russo, Bloomstran, Lou, Gayner |
| **GOOG/GOOGL** | 7 | Buffett, Ackman, Smith, Li Lu, Rochon, Russo, Gayner, O'Leary |
| **MA (Mastercard)** | 4 | Akre, Kantesaria, Russo, O'Leary |
| **MCO (Moody's)** | 4 | Akre, Kantesaria, Hohn, Spier |
| **V (Visa)** | 4 | Munger, Smith, Hohn, Rochon, O'Leary |
| **META** | 3 | Smith, Dorsey, Rochon |
| **MSFT** | 2 | Smith, Hohn |
| **ASML** | 2 | Dorsey, O'Leary |
| **BAC** | 3 | Buffett, Li Lu, Spier |
| **PDD** | 2 | Li Lu, Lou |
| **BABA** | 2 | Tepper, Burry (+ Spier "for fun") |

### 🎯 Joe's April 30 Stocks — Super Investor Validation

| Joe's Pick | Super Investor Backing | Conviction Level |
|---|---|---|
| **V (Visa)** | Munger, Smith, Hohn, Rochon, O'Leary | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Highest conviction |
| **FICO** | Kantesaria (quality monopoly thesis) | ⭐⭐⭐ Single investor, strong thesis |
| **BABA** | Tepper, Burry, Spier | ⭐⭐⭐ Contrarian — China risk |
| **PGR (Progressive)** | Joe himself — deep DCF work done | ⭐⭐ Joe's own analysis |

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## Pre-Execution Checklist

### ✅ Research Complete
- [x] Super investor 13F analysis (Jan 7, 2026 filing)
- [x] DCF model for Progressive (PGR)
- [x] BAC replacement analysis (→ V, FICO, BABA, PGR)
- [x] Strike list dashboard built (40+ stocks, 15 investors)

### 📋 Still Needed Before April 30
- [ ] **Final position sizing** — exact dollar allocation per stock across all 29 positions
- [ ] **Tax lot analysis** — which 7 sells trigger gains/losses? Coordinate with taxable vs IRA
- [ ] **Roth conversion coordination** — selling positions is an opportunity to convert some to Roth before rebuying
- [ ] **Brokerage readiness** — is Fidelity fully set up? All accounts funded?
- [ ] **Order types** — limit orders vs market for each buy? Illiquid names need limits
- [ ] **Updated 13F filings** — Q4 2025 13Fs were due Feb 14, 2026. Q1 2026 13Fs won't be available until May 15. Use the Feb 14 data as final validation.
- [ ] **Earnings calendar check** — any of the 29 stocks reporting between now and April 30? Don't buy ahead of binary events at full position size

### ⚠️ Risk Factors to Discuss with Joe
1. **Market timing risk** — deploying $1.7M on a single date. Consider spreading over 2-4 weeks (April 15-May 15)?
2. **BABA China risk** — tariff/delisting uncertainty. Size appropriately (the "for fun" allocation Spier uses is telling)
3. **0.6% innovation positions** — at $1.9M total, that's ~$11,400 per position. Transaction costs on small positions?
4. **Concentration in financials** — V, FICO, PGR, MA, MCO are all financial services. If rates crash or regulation hits, they all move together
5. **Constellation Software (CSU)** — was on the radar before the 55% crash. Is this now a buy candidate for the opportunistic bucket?

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## Pabrai's Current Bets (Worth Studying)

Mohnish Pabrai (Joe's rated 8.5) is in an unusual cluster:
- **HCC, AMR** — coal stocks (cyclical deep value)
- **RIG, VAL, NE** — offshore drilling (oil services recovery bet)
- **Reysas Logistics (Turkey), Edelweiss (India), Sunteck Realty (India)** — emerging market asymmetric bets

This is **pure "heads I win, tails I don't lose much" Pabrai-style** — asymmetric payoffs in hated sectors. Worth monitoring but may not fit Joe's Core Forever bucket.

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## Key Quotes for the Journey

From Joe's own research file:
- *"Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds"* — Peter Lynch
- *"Know what you own and know why you own it"* — Peter Lynch  
- *"The person who turns over the most rocks wins the game"* — Peter Lynch
- *"The stuff that scares you in life… shapes you."*

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## Next Steps (Rob's TODO Before April 30)

1. **Pull updated Q4 2025 13F filings** for all tracked super investors (filed by Feb 14, 2026) — compare to Jan 7 data for any changes
2. **Build execution spreadsheet** — 29 stocks, allocation %, dollar amount, order type, account (IRA vs taxable)
3. **Earnings calendar scan** — flag any of the 29 reporting in April
4. **Build Monte Carlo scenario** — what does $1.9M compound to over 10/20/40 years at various return assumptions?
5. **Research Constellation Software crash** — is the 55% decline a generational buying opportunity?

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*Analysis by Rob Lobster 🦞 | Source: "value investors - clone the best.xlsx" + MEMORY.md portfolio notes*
*"Make good decisions." 🦞*